Editorial: Japan’s defense budget gets another big boost, but is it sustainable?

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has submitted a record-breaking budget request of some 8.54 trillion yen (about $59.8 billion) for fiscal 2025. The government plans to allocate a total of 43 trillion yen (approx. $301 billion) in defense spending over five years through fiscal 2027, and next fiscal year marks the third year of this plan. If increasing the defense budget is being prioritized over strengthening systematic defensive capability, this would be putting the cart before the horse.

Expanding the budget simply to fit the numbers to the plan could be a source of major trouble in the future. With a chronic shortage of Self-Defense Forces (SDF) personnel, can we say that this budget is reasonable? This needs to be examined.

Based on the defense buildup plan revised in 2022, the focus has been placed on building counterstrike capabilities, enhancing missile defense systems, and investing in the space and cyber sectors.

Noteworthy is the 970-billion-yen (approx. $6.8 billion) request for strengthening “stand-off defense capabilities,” which enable attacks from outside the enemy’s weapons range. This capability can also be used for counterstrikes, and the request represents nearly a 40% increase from this fiscal year’s budget. Of this, over 300 billion yen (about $2.1 billion) is earmarked for constructing a “satellite constellation” that will use numerous small satellites to detect and track targets.

Counterstrike capabilities — the ability to strike a distant enemy base in response to an attack — deviate from Japan’s long-held principle of exclusive self-defense. It could provoke suspicion and distrust among neighboring countries, destabilizing the region.

At the same time as Japan is acquiring more equipment, personnel shortages have become critical. Last fiscal year, the SDF fell 49% short of their recruitment target — the worst result of the postwar period.

To improve this, the budget request includes measures such as doubling the lump sum payment for recruits under the fixed-term enlistment system and giving personnel private rooms in barracks and other facilities. Personnel and food expenses are expected to increase by about 2% over this fiscal year.

However, with Japan’s accelerating birth rate decline, there is no clear prospect of fundamentally resolving the SDF’s manpower shortage. The introduction of labor-saving technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and drones is still in its early stages. Can the Ministry of Defense secure the talent required for increasingly sophisticated equipment?

Machinery is often paid for in installments over multiple years, meaning once more is acquired, it swells future budgets. In the face of the country’s harsh financial condition, questions remain about how sustainable this defense expansion really is.

Within the ministry and the SDF, incidents such as the mishandling of classified information, Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd.’s wining and dining of Maritime Self-Defense Force officers, and workplace harassment have continued.

For the public to support Japan’s defense policy, strict discipline and thorough reform of internal practices must be ensured.